Research

(Selected) Work in Progress

• Part of the evaluation team for the 2019-2021 Unemployment Benefit (UI) reform at the Institut des Politiques Publiques (Evaluation for the French Ministry of Labor), with B. Fabre, F. Fontaine, and M. Tô

• Gender differences in the impact of unemployment benefits: Evidence from a RKD in France, with A. Ferey, F. Meluzzi and A. Uhlendorff

• Also research on:

  • Unemployment insurance and job search behavior (2023 UI French reform), information frictions in the hiring process 

  • Trade vulnerabilities as leverage for retaliations against US tariffs

  • The link between vulnerabilities and the European internal market

Non-academic publications

• A review of EU trade dependencies, 2025, in the EIB (European Investment Bank) flagship investment report 2024/2025

Summary: This contribution analyzes the EU’s trade vulnerabilities from 2002 onwards, identifying critical imported products and their impact on value chains. Using the European Commission’s methodology combined with new criteria from Mejean and Rousseaux (2024), it highlights a growing dependence on specific suppliers, particularly China, whose share in EU trade dependencies has increased while those of the US and the rest of the world have declined by 3 to 10 percentage points. The study shows that the most critical vulnerabilities lie upstream in value chains, with 49% of vulnerable products situated more than three stages from final consumption, meaning supply disruptions could severely impact European industries. Moreover, trade dependencies are structurally concentrated in key sectors such as chemicals, metals, and ceramics, which are essential for strategic industries. These vulnerabilities persist over time, with 41% of dependencies identified before the global financial crisis still present afterward, and 35% remaining in subsequent periods, making targeted policy responses crucial. While some affect consumer goods with limited consequences, the most concerning ones involve essential industrial inputs, where disruptions pose systemic risks. To address these challenges, the study underscores the need for a balanced resilience strategy, combining supplier diversification, local production, and industrial coordination. Managing the trade-off between resilience and free trade is essential to avoid excessive costs while ensuring the EU’s economic security.

• Identifying European trade dependencies, 2024, with I. Mejean; in Pisani-Ferry, J, B Weder Di Mauro and J Zettelmeyer (eds), Paris Report 2: Europe's Economic Security, CEPR Press, Paris & London.

CEPR Bruegel Paris Report, Reports webpage,  CEPR's Paris Symposium 2023

Media: Bruegel's podcast, VOXeu Column, CRESTive Columns

Seminar: CEPII-Banque de France Competitiveness Seminar

Abstract: We review and extend upon existing literature using product-level trade data to identify trade dependencies that expose the European Union to potential disruptions. While acknowledging the  significance of concentrated foreign input sourcing as a source of vulnerability, a comprehensive assessment of vulnerabilities should also consider the potential for substituting away from disrupted  input sources, both domestically and abroad. This may necessitate devising novel statistical measures at the European level. We present a novel methodology that identifies trade dependencies  by integrating these substitution sources. Our review encompasses normative arguments justifying  public interventions to improve the resilience of value chains. We intersect our identified dependencies with a measure of geopolitical risk, their upstreamness in the value chain, and also focus  on critical products and strategic green technologies. The specific targeting of these policies varies depending on the nature of risks they aim to mitigate. Finally, we discuss the range of policy tools available for crafting a resilience policy.

• Quel est l'impact économique de l'accueil des réfugiés ?, 2021, with E.  Auriol and M. Péron, Focus du Conseil d'Analyse Economique, 70